Daniel Pakkala (VTT) and I are planning an Opentech AI Workshop at IBM Finland HQ on March 14th, 2018.

FYI: On the long-shot that you will be in Finland then, or have a colleague there we should invite, please let us know.  About 100 of us will be exploring the growing set of open source AI Challenge Leaderboards, unveiling some analysis of industry by industry leaderboards, healthcare, education, retail, energy, etc. – and exploring the architecture/roadmap for “solving AI” from narrow to broad, from tool, to assistant, to collaborator, to coach, to mediator in smarter/wiser service systems – see: https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/leaderboards-80909263

Finally, best wishes to you both for a creative and productive 2018!

More soon and see posting here as well…
https://opentechai.blog/2017/12/29/opentech-ai-workshop/

Contact: Jim Spohrer <spohrer@us.ibm.com>, Pakkala Daniel <Daniel.Pakkala@vtt.fi>

What is Opentech AI?  Read the blog here: http://opentechai.blog

(1) Artificial Intelligence Augmentation

Carter, S., & Nielsen, M. (2017). Using Artificial Intelligence to Augment Human Intelligence: By creating user interfaces which let us work with the representations inside machine learning models, we can give people new tools for reasoning. Distill. https://distill.pub/2017/aia

“In the 1950s a different vision of what computers are for began to develop. That vision was crystallized in 1962, when Douglas Engelbart proposed that computers could be used as a way of augmenting human intellect. In this view, computers weren’t primarily tools for solving number-crunching problems. Rather, they were real-time interactive systems, with rich inputs and outputs, that humans could work with to support and expand their own problem-solving process. This vision of intelligence augmentation (IA) deeply influenced many others, including researchers such as Alan Kay at Xerox PARC, entrepreneurs such as Steve Jobs at Apple, and led to many of the key ideas of modern computing systems. Its ideas have also deeply influenced digital art and music, and fields such as interaction design, data visualization, computational creativity, and human-computer interaction.”

“Research on IA has often been in competition with research on artificial intelligence (AI): competition for funding, competition for the interest of talented researchers. Although there has always been overlap between the fields, IA has typically focused on building systems which put humans and machines to work together, while AI has focused on complete outsourcing of intellectual tasks to machines. In particular, problems in AI are often framed in terms of matching or surpassing human performance: beating humans at chess or Go; learning to recognize speech and images or translating language as well as humans; and so on.”

“This essay describes a new field, emerging today out of a synthesis of AI and IA. For this field, we suggest the name artificial intelligence augmentation (AIA): the use of AI systems to help develop new methods for intelligence augmentation. This new field introduces important new fundamental questions, questions not associated to either parent field. We believe the principles and systems of AIA will be radically different to most existing systems.”

“Our essay begins with a survey of recent technical work hinting at artificial intelligence augmentation, including work on generative interfaces – that is, interfaces which can be used to explore and visualize generative machine learning models. Such interfaces develop a kind of cartography of generative models, ways for humans to explore and make meaning from those models, and to incorporate what those models “know” into their creative work.”

This paper demonstrates the almost “magical” ability of AI to generate images, and other context, that would require skilled people a great deal of time to draw/create.  Will be interesting when things progress from content generation to game generation – I suspect it will start as “really bad” versions of existing games – see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Really_Bad_Chess (this is a great and fun game – a creative “twist” on real chess, but in some ways perhaps more exciting than real chess)

(2) Partner Technologies

McGee, K., & Hedborg, J. (2004). Partner Technologies: an alternative to technology masters & servants. In Proc. COSIGN.: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.60.1188&rep=rep1&type=pdf

“When it comes to the design of intelligent technologies intended to empower people, much of it is guided by two central metaphors: technologies as servants or as masters. Servant technologies can be empowering because they reduce or remove work that people find difficult, dirty, or dangerous; master technologies can be empowering because they instruct, inform, remind, cajole, nag, or otherwise force people to do things which are important – but which, for whatever reasons, people do not (or cannot) do without this assistance.”

“For many kinds of activities and contexts these guiding metaphors do indeed seem useful. But there are activities where a dynamic, creative partnership among equals seems like the more appropriate model of empowerment – as in the case of musical co-improvisation by jazz groups, where particular collections of individuals mutually inspire and support each other.  Not only do good partnerships seem to help people attain or sustain powerful engagement in their current activities, in some cases they seem to enable people to successfully enter new activities.”

(3) Intelligence Cognitive Assistants (ICA) Workshop

Requires registration but some great presentations on this topic here: https://www.src.org/calendar/e006378/

Thanks for pointers to these papers from:

(1) Don Norman, https://twitter.com/JimSpohrer/status/945379167431933952

(2) Mattias Arvola, https://twitter.com/MattiasArvola/status/943381280699371522

Hi All,

Please help us evolve the ideas on this Opentch AI Blog website:
http://opentechai.blog

Thanks, Jim Spohrer (IBM USA) and Daniel Pakkala (VTT Finland)

A wide range of AI headlines in the popular press are pretty misleading…. designed for eyeballs and knee jerks, and not brains and thoughtful discussion. For example, in the headline below “without any help” …
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609141/alphago-zero-shows-machines-can-become-superhuman-without-any-help/

Here is a roadmap to “AI Solved” status based on back of the envelope calculations of amount of data required and number of multiples required – at reasonable price points:

AI Solved for IA purposes is about 2036-2040 – unlikely any sooner – in spite of wonderful deep learning progress on pattern recognition tasks in last 5 years.

IA = Intelligence Augmentation, the real goal of AI

2015 Pattern Recognition Speech: URL: http://spandh.dcs.shef.ac.uk/chime_challenge/chime2016/results.html
2015 Pattern Recognition Images: URL: http://www.image-net.org/
2015 Patten Recognition Translation: URL: http://www.statmt.org/wmt17/
2018 Video Understanding Actions: URL: http://www.thumos.info/home.html
> Also UCF101 http://crcv.ucf.edu/data/UCF101.php
2018 Video Understanding Context: URL: http://visualqa.org/challenge.html
2018 Video Understanding DeepVideo: URL: http://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/deepvideo/
2021 Memory Declarative: URL: https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/
>Also Allen AI Kaggle Science Challenge https://www.kaggle.com/c/the-allen-ai-science-challenge
2024 Reasoning Deduction: URL: http://www.satcompetition.org/
2027: Social Interaction Scripts: URL: https://competitions.codalab.org/competitions/15333
2030: Fluent Conversation Speech Acts: URL: http://convai.io/
2030: Fluent Conversation Intentions: URL: http://workshop.colips.org/dstc6/
2030: Fluent Conversation Alexa Prize: URL: https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize
2033: Assistant & Collaborator Summarization: URL: http://rali.iro.umontreal.ca/rali/?q=en/Automatic%20summarization
2033: Assistant & Collaborator Debate: URL: http://argumentationcompetition.org/2015/
2036: Coach & Mediator General AI: URL: https://www.general-ai-challenge.org/
2036: Coach & Mediator Negotiation: URL: https://easychair.org/cfp/AT2017
Part of the reason it will take this long is that for AI to be good at IA, is AI will have to be responsible for “institutional facts” to be symbiotic with a person in our culture.
Read: https://www.amazon.com/Construction-Social-Reality-John-Searle/dp/0684831791
Also, read Roger Schank’s four classics for the progression required for cognitive systems:
CIP – https://www.amazon.com/Conceptual-Information-Processing-Roger-Schank/dp/1483252981
SPGU – https://www.amazon.com/Scripts-Plans-Goals-Understanding-Intelligence/dp/0898591384/
ICU – https://www.amazon.com/Inside-Computer-Understanding-Miniatures-Intelligence/dp/B00ZT1PB5Y/
Dynamic Memory – https://www.amazon.com/Dynamic-Memory-Reminding-Learning-Computers/dp/0521270294/

Dear Colleagues and Friends,

I have a few exciting announcements:

1) Submit a paper to the LaLonde Service Conference – you can attend it just before the SERVSIG Conference in Paris in June 2018.

2) Get a free desk review copy of the new Essentials in Services Marketing, 3rd ed.

3) Download the paper on Cost-Effective Service Excellence (with Valarie Zeithaml, published online first in JAMS).

4) See the Winning in Service Markets Series which offers books on specific topics suitable for executive education.

5) Attend the Strategic Service Management Program with Wolfgang Ulaga, Sheryl Kimes and me in Singapore.

More details can be found below.  Do be in touch if you are interested in any of these topics.

Going forward, I will only send out 1 or max 2 emails per annum.  If you like more regular updates, follow me on LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter, Google Scholar and/or ResarchGate.

With best wishes,

Jochen

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
LaLonde Service Conference

15th International Research Conference in Service Management
10-13 June 2018 – La Londe les Maures, France

We are happy to announce that the 15th La Londe Service Conference will take place from June 10 to June 13, 2018.

The La Londe Service Conference is a unique scientific meeting. You will have ample time (20 min for your presentation plus 25 min for Q&A) to discuss your paper with a qualified audience. And you will have a chance to enjoy the magnificent scenery of the South of France, the beautiful Mediterranean seashore environment, and a boat trip to Porquerolles island.
Register and send us your paper by January 31st 2018. For additional information, visit the conference website
https://iae-aix.univ-amu.fr/en/lalonde-conference-2018

The scientific committee consists of:
> Mike Brady, Florida State University – Human Resources & Marketing Interactions Track
> Joy Field, Boston College – Service Operations Track
> Pierre Eiglier, Aix-Marseille Graduate School of Management – IAE – Strategy and Economics Track
> Jochen Wirtz, National University of Singapore – Marketing Track

P.S. In 2018, the La Londe Service Conference will be just before the SERVSIG conference in Paris.  La Londe conference will end on June, 13th at noon, and the SERVSIG conference will start on June, 14th with an opening reception in the evening. A fast train can take you from Toulon to Paris in less than 4 hours just in time for the opening reception.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Essentials in Services Marketing, 3rd

The new 3rd edition has been published. For further information and a sample chapter see: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282206596_Essentials_of_Services_Marketing_3rd_edition

The book comes with the full instructor resources, incl test bank and PPT deck.   If you would like to receive a desk review copy, please “reply to all” [or email Yajnaseni (yajnaseni.das@pearson.com) and Kasia  (kasia.rutkowska@pearson.com)  cc me (jochen@nus.edu.sg)], and let us have your mailing address (no PO boxes please) and a phone number for the courier service company.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Cost-Effective Service Excellence

This research project has kept me busy for many years, which makes me so delighted that this paper with Valarie Zeithaml has now been published in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science.

Synopsis: Service excellence and cost effectiveness are seen to be in conflict, yet there are organizations that achieve both. This article analyses how ten organizations did it and identifies three strategic options for achieving cost-effective service excellence (CESE). Interestingly, these options can be applied in isolation or in certain combinations. Read the full article here: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11747-017-0560-7.pdf

The electronic supplementary materials are available here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319255306_Cost-Effective_Service_Excellence_–_JAMS_2017_Wirtz_Zeithaml_Online_Supplementary_Material  

This is an “open access” article that does not require copy right clearance for use in class or distribution. That is, you can use it free of charge in your classes.

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Winning in Service Markets Series

“Your books are too thick, we don’t want to read so much!”  That’s the feedback I get a lot.  Well, I’m in marking and use feedback for new product development.  I am delighted to launch a series of short books (typically 50 to 80 pages) at an attractive price ($4.95 each) that focus on specific topics.

Vol 1 to 13 of the Winning in Service Market Series are published.  Further information and sample pages are provided at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jochen_Wirtz/publications?pubType=book .

Winning in Service Markets comprises of the following volumes:
Vol 1: Understanding Service Consumers
Vol 2: Positioning Services in Competitive Markets
Vol 3: Developing Service Products and Brands
Vol 4: Pricing Services and Revenue Management
Vol 5: Service Marketing Communications
Vol 6: Designing Customer Service Processes
Vol 7: Balancing Capacity and Demand in Service Operations
Vol 8: Crafting the Service Environment
Vol 9: Managing People for Service Advantage
Vol 10: Managing Customer Relationships and Building Loyalty
Vol 11: Designing Complaint Handling and Service Recovery Strategies
Vol 12: Service Quality and Productivity Management
Vol 13: Building A World-Class Service Organization

It was fun doing this series – it is basically as subset of the “mother book” Winning in Service Markets, which can be previewed here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308714749_Winning_in_Service_Markets

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Strategic Service Management Program

The Strategic Service Management Program with Wolfgang Ulaga, Sheryl Kimes and me in Singapore has just been finalized.  Many of my alumni asked whether we can have an in-depth service management course; I am happy to now announce the launch of this new program.

The 5-day program is designed for senior leaders in organizations that want to differentiate on service. Academic colleagues are most welcome to attend the program, too.  Key topics include:

·         How to capture value in the service economy
·         Why and how to use service to defy commoditisation
·         Create customer loyalty and engagement: key strategies & tools
·         Deliver & scale world-class service throughout the customer journey
·         Effectively diagnose and close service quality gaps
·         Make a successful transition from products to solutions: challenges and strategies
·         Leveraging big data and analytics for service revenue and profit growth
·         How to effectively price services
·         Delivering cost-effective service excellence: strategies to become a leader in both customer satisfaction and productivity
·         How to achieve rapid improvements in service culture to drive innovation and differentiation

For more details see: http://executive-education.nus.edu/programmes/40-strategic-differentiation-through-service-excellence

For enquiries, contact Sarah Chan at sarahchan@nus.edu.sg

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I am sorry for potential cross-posting. If you do not want to
receive further emails, just reply with “remove”.  Thank you.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Professor Jochen WIRTZ, Ph.D , Vice Dean, Graduate Studies, NUS Business School
Tel : +65 6516 3871 | Email : bizgrad@nus.edu.sg  | Mochtar Riady Building, Level 4, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245

Among the World’s Best!  The NUS MBA  Ranked #26;  The NUS Executive MBA  Ranked #17;  UCLA – NUS Executive MBA  Ranked #6;  Financial Times’ Global MBA/EMBA Rankings 2016/2017

Follow us:  Website | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram |Weibo

Hope you can join us at PICMET’18 in the “paradise”, Waikiki Beach, Hawaii on August 19-23, 2018.

The deadline for the submission of up-to 200 word abstracts is December 3, 2017.

200 word abstract deadline Dec. 3, 2017 for PICMET 2018, Waikiki Beach, Hawaii on August 19-23, 2018: http://www.picmet.org

Dundar Kocaoglu

==============================
Dundar F. Kocaoglu, PhD; Life Fellow, IEEE
Professor Emeritus and Founding Chair,
Department of Engineering and Technology Management
President and CEO, PICMET (Portland International Center for Management of Engineering & Technology), and
Director, RISE (Research Institute for Renewable Energy)
Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, 97207-0751, USA
http://www.etm.pdx.edu
http://www.picmet.org
==============================

Imagination challenge: Consider quantifying and graphing the decreasing cost of digital workers due to Moore’s Law, and increasing GDP/Employees USA from 1960 to 2080 (projected).

A narrow digital worker will cost about a million dollars by 2025, and require a petascale computational system.  The same digital worker will cost about a thousand dollars by 2045, and about $1 by 2065.

A digital worker that can drive a car for example, or transcribe medical records, or provide the services of a well-trained retail clerk.  The incremental cost of additional digital workers who perform the same task will be much smaller.  So areas of specialization in business and society that need narrow biological workers (people and animals) in large quantities will be have digital worker alternatives at dropping costs.

A broad digital worker (capable of doing anything any narrow digital worker can do) will cost a million dollars by 2045, a thousand dollars by 2065, and about $1 by 2085, and require an exascale computational system.

Feedback welcome on diagrams below, which explore thinking about smarter/wiser service systems with digital workers.  Decreasing cost of digital workers due to Moore’s Law, and increasing GDP/Employees USA from 1960 to 2080 (projected)

Digital Workers

Full presentation here:
https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/cost-of-dw-20170909-v18

… and please read more about cognitive opentech here:
https://service-science.info/archives/4629

Also see: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf
K. Grace, J. Salvatier, A. Dafoe, B. Zhang, and O. Evans, “When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts,”ArXiv e-prints , May 2017.

Acknowledgements
Thanks to Marius Ciortea for “revenue per employee” idea – I could only find gdp/employees as an approximation, but will keep looking for data.  Thanks to Dan Gruhl and Daniel Pakkala for help with Moore’s Law and decreasing “cost of digital workers” data. Horst Simon sent me some power information for super compters, hope to get into next version.

Reading Recommendation (via Francesca Rossi and Susan Malaika)
Tegmark’s Life 3.0

https://www.amazon.com/Life-3-0-Being-Artificial-Intelligence/dp/1101946598
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/sep/22/life-30-max-tegmark-review

From review by Harari’s Guardian review:

In the 21st century, AI will open up an even wider spectrum of possibilities. Deciding which of these to realise may well be the most important choice humankind will have to make in the coming decades. This choice is not a matter of engineering or science. It is a matter of politics.

Max Tegmark’s Life 3.0 tries to rectify the situation. Written in an accessible and engaging style, and aimed at the general public, the book offers a political and philosophical map of the promises and perils of the AI revolution. Instead of pushing any one agenda or prediction, Tegmark seeks to cover as much ground as possible, reviewing a wide variety of scenarios concerning the impact of AI on the job market, warfare and political  systems.

Once an algorithm knows you better than you know yourself, institutions such as democratic elections and free markets become obsolete, and authority shifts from humans to algorithms. Instead of fearing assassin robots that try to terminate us, we should be concerned about hordes of bots who know how to press our emotional buttons better than our mother, and use this uncanny ability to try to sell us something. It might be apocalypse by shopping.

Though Tegmark is probably correct in taking things to this cosmic level, I fear that many, if not most, of his prospective readers will not follow him there. Our political systems, and indeed our individual minds, are just not built to think on such a scale. Current political mechanisms barely manage to make decisions on the scale of decades – how can they make decisions on the scale of millennia?

This week I got emails from a number of colleagues pointing me to papers, books, and startup ideas about learning, education, skills, and the future…. finally had a chance to read through some of them more carefully this Saturday morning…

Thanks for the emails from Obinna Anya, Ralph Badinelli, Bill Rouse, and just a few hours ago Ted Kahn, of DesignWorlds for Learning….

Jim’s response to Ted’s email about a new book….

Thanks Ted – seen it, but have not ordered and read it yet – I need too, so thanks for the reminder…
http://www.fuzzytechie.com/

Also when we think about technology skills importance relative to humanities and coordination skills, check out this piece from MIT Technology Review on skills: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608707/the-myth-of-the-skills-gap/

My thoughts….  At IBM, we talk about T-shapes, with depth and breath, not just tech or humanities in isolation, hopefully we all know that the deep part (technical and problem-solving skills) and the broad part (coordination and communication skills) of the T-shape are both very important.

Nick Donofrio gets its: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMgPCW4mlVA

Jim Corgel gets its: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm3cqVuOqMQ

Have a good weekend.  I am traveling quite a bit the next two weeks, but have not forgotten that we should have lunch or afternoon coffee sometime to catch up; apologies – just still a bit too busy these days.

Post Script….

…how much of the world is two seemingly polar opposites arguing about which is more important when the dynamic balance of the two is what is needed?  In a wise society we focus on appropriate investment in both while keeping a dynamic balance, i think.  Understanding the evolving ecology of service systems entities their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities is what service science is about.

One day I got an email from an IBM executive who wanted our service professionals to have the equivalent of a super-power suit they could put on that would augment their cognitive capabilities… certainly close to what is now called the Cognitive Enterprise, and a focus of our cognitive opentech efforts today…   I almost advocated for calling “service science,” “augmentation science” in honor of Doug Engelbart, but he said call it whatever IBM would embrace best at the time, so I advocated for Service Science Management and Engineering (SSME).

Lately, I think this CSLS line of thinking gets it most “right” as a launch vector for the future – see cyber-social-learning-systems (CSLS): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYKi11rUOgg ; I miss talking with Doug Engelbart and many others about these and other topics.

Perhaps we are on the verge of becoming a wiser society, as we confront the enormous responsibilities that come with so much technological capability.   We are complex systems embedded in complex systems with capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.   Learning is what we do in our quest for wisdom living first in a physical environment and now a socially constructed environment of accelerating systems change – https://service-science.info/archives/2096

All this in the context of the Atlantic article that Bill Rouse sent – How America Went Haywire – https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/09/how-america-lost-its-mind/534231/

liked this summary: “The short answer is because we’re Americans—because being American means we can believe anything we want; that our beliefs are equal or superior to anyone else’s, experts be damned. Once people commit to that approach, the world turns inside out, and no cause-and-effect connection is fixed. The credible becomes incredible and the incredible credible.”

Paul Maglio, co-creator of service science at IBM wrote:

like this summary: “Mix epic individualism with extreme religion; mix show business with everything else; let all that ferment for a few centuries; then run it through the anything-goes ’60s and the internet age. The result is the America we inhabit today, with reality and fantasy weirdly and dangerously blurred and commingled.”

And “the beat goes on” as creative artists embrace technology to create new entertainment realities for people to engage with and eventually populate for many, many hours every day:   http://www.bbc.com/news/av/technology-40656678/sir-peter-jackson-s-studio-reveals-augmented-reality-demo

See also WorldBoard: https://service-science.info/archives/2060

Collectively, our episodic dynamics memories are the world we populate.  Episodic memory is like a time machine that takes us back to any part to re-live it as a memory. We can also project into possible futures we would like to experience, public or private experiences. Our identities are strings of memories about ourselves and our interactions with others, including the imagined future possible interactions.  Some interactions are direct interactions in the physical world, but more and more we are detached, and interacting indirectly in a socio-technical world of artificial intelligences mixed with/wrapped around and augmenting natural intelligences, and it is getting harder to tell the difference.

Individually and collectively we are learning to take responsibility for all this. Civilization works because we take responsibility for our actions, and can reason about institutional facts.   See Searle’s book “The Construction of Social Reality” https://www.amazon.com/Construction-Social-Reality-John-Searle/dp/0684831791/

For a number of reasons, I think the future of learning and education is about individuals on small teams learning to rapidly rebuild everything from scratch to explore alternative futures sequentially and in parallel.  My attempt to work with some colleagues to reframe this idea about the future of learning and education in a more serious format is here: http://coevolving.com/pubs/2013_SRBSv30_n5_Spohrer_Giuiusa_Demirkan_Ing_ServiceScienceReframingProgressWithUniversities_v1001_preprint.pdf  My attempt at less serious reframing is here: https://service-science.info/archives/2189

Reaction to Kurzweil’s Linguistically Fluent posting…

Kurzweil Linguistically Fluent:  http://www.kurzweilai.net/ray-kurzweil-reveals-plans-for-linguistically-fluent-google-software

Kurzweil’s plan is a good plan from a Google Deep Learning perspective…

The plan is an extension of the capabilities of seq2seq – sequence to sequence – which is good for DL translation between languages, for example.

However, no one has solved Reasoning, which is required for fluent conversation.

Episodic Memory is required for solving reasoning.

(Anyone who doubts this needs to read Schank’s Dynamic Memory, as well as Scripts, Plans, Goals, and Understanding, as well as Inside Computer Understanding, as well as Conceptual Information Processing – find and check out from your local library)

Video Understanding is required for solving episodic memory.

Video understanding can be solved with DL like Seq2Seq – since it depends on several sub-problems, including speech recognition, image recognition, language translation, and some of the capabilities in driverless cares (learning from watching – seeing and doing – a shallow type of simulation – or mirror neuron capability).

So we are getting close to what Kurzweil wants to do – certainly possible by 2025.

Possible timeline to solution of linguistically fluent AI for the enterprise = digital worker/cognitive collaborator…

2018-2020 video understanding solved for simple world-task model actions + context
2019-2021 video understanding solved for simple social model interactions + context
2020-2022 episodic memory solved
2021-2023 reasoning solved
2022-2024 partial fluent conversation solved
2023-2025 learning from watching (and doing) solved
2024-2026 learning from reading solved
2025-2027 full linguistically fluent = digital worker/cognitive collaborator solved
…
2035-2037 $1000 per year for digital worker achieved for 2017 top 1000 occupations
…
2055-2057 $10 per year for digital worker achieved for 2027 top 1000 occupations

Of course, it will not actually evolve this way, but this is a linear-thinking projection to provoke alternative scenarios.

Each of the above solutions is likely to spawn an open source code community on Github with an associated open data set – open AI code + data + models + stacks.

References:
Kurzweil Linguistically Fluent:  http://www.kurzweilai.net/ray-kurzweil-reveals-plans-for-linguistically-fluent-google-software

Quoc V. Le (Google) Introduction to Seq2Seq: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5RY_SUJih4

Schank Dynamic Memory: https://www.amazon.com/Dynamic-Memory-Reminding-Learning-Computers/dp/0521270294

Schank Scripts Plans Goals and Understanding: https://www.amazon.com/Scripts-Plans-Goals-Understanding-Intelligence/dp/0898591384/

Schank Inside Computer Understanding: https://www.amazon.com/Inside-Computer-Understanding-Miniatures-Intelligence/dp/B00ZT1PB5Y/

Schank Conceptual Information Processing: https://www.amazon.com/Conceptual-Information-Processing-Roger-Schank/dp/1483252981