AI Headlines

Posted by on

A wide range of AI headlines in the popular press are pretty misleading…. designed for eyeballs and knee jerks, and not brains and thoughtful discussion. For example, in the headline below “without any help” …
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609141/alphago-zero-shows-machines-can-become-superhuman-without-any-help/

Here is a roadmap to “AI Solved” status based on back of the envelope calculations of amount of data required and number of multiples required – at reasonable price points:

AI Solved for IA purposes is about 2036-2040 – unlikely any sooner – in spite of wonderful deep learning progress on pattern recognition tasks in last 5 years.

IA = Intelligence Augmentation, the real goal of AI

2015 Pattern Recognition Speech: URL: http://spandh.dcs.shef.ac.uk/chime_challenge/chime2016/results.html
2015 Pattern Recognition Images: URL: http://www.image-net.org/
2015 Patten Recognition Translation: URL: http://www.statmt.org/wmt17/
2018 Video Understanding Actions: URL: http://www.thumos.info/home.html
> Also UCF101 http://crcv.ucf.edu/data/UCF101.php
2018 Video Understanding Context: URL: http://visualqa.org/challenge.html
2018 Video Understanding DeepVideo: URL: http://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/deepvideo/
2021 Memory Declarative: URL: https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/
>Also Allen AI Kaggle Science Challenge https://www.kaggle.com/c/the-allen-ai-science-challenge
2024 Reasoning Deduction: URL: http://www.satcompetition.org/
2027: Social Interaction Scripts: URL: https://competitions.codalab.org/competitions/15333
2030: Fluent Conversation Speech Acts: URL: http://convai.io/
2030: Fluent Conversation Intentions: URL: http://workshop.colips.org/dstc6/
2030: Fluent Conversation Alexa Prize: URL: https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize
2033: Assistant & Collaborator Summarization: URL: http://rali.iro.umontreal.ca/rali/?q=en/Automatic%20summarization
2033: Assistant & Collaborator Debate: URL: http://argumentationcompetition.org/2015/
2036: Coach & Mediator General AI: URL: https://www.general-ai-challenge.org/
2036: Coach & Mediator Negotiation: URL: https://easychair.org/cfp/AT2017
Part of the reason it will take this long is that for AI to be good at IA, is AI will have to be responsible for “institutional facts” to be symbiotic with a person in our culture.
Read: https://www.amazon.com/Construction-Social-Reality-John-Searle/dp/0684831791
Also, read Roger Schank’s four classics for the progression required for cognitive systems:
CIP – https://www.amazon.com/Conceptual-Information-Processing-Roger-Schank/dp/1483252981
SPGU – https://www.amazon.com/Scripts-Plans-Goals-Understanding-Intelligence/dp/0898591384/
ICU – https://www.amazon.com/Inside-Computer-Understanding-Miniatures-Intelligence/dp/B00ZT1PB5Y/
Dynamic Memory – https://www.amazon.com/Dynamic-Memory-Reminding-Learning-Computers/dp/0521270294/