Simple framework for rethinking future jobs

There is a lot of speculation about jobs of the future.

How might one approach rethinking education and future jobs?  Here is one framework based on the social, mental, physical component tasks of work:

Many entry-level service sector jobs have social task components, requiring apprenticeship education.

Many high-end service sector jobs have mental task components, requiring higher education.

Many of the disenfranchised workers – manufacturing, transportation, construction, maintenance, agricultural jobs – have physical task components, typically requiring hands-on with specialized equipment education – often tools in a neighbor’s garage.

For this last group of workers, who enjoy the physical task components of their work,  the “maker movement” seems to be a possible high-tech enabled route, requiring apprenticeships to learn the latest “hands-on” technologies…

….as documented by Mark Hatch in his book….

Hatch M (2013) The maker movement manifesto: rules for innovation in the new world of crafters, hackers, and tinkerers. McGraw Hill Professional.
https://www.amazon.com/Maker-Movement-Manifesto-Innovation-Tinkerers/dp/0071821120/
“Manifesto: Make, Share, Give, Learn, Tool Up, Play, Participate, Support, Change” p. 1-2
“But because the maker revolution is physical, it is destined to be bigger.” P. 3
“A 98 percent reduction in the cost of launching a product or company means, for example, that what used to cost $100,000 now costs just $2,000.” P. 7
“Tools are getting easier to use, they are more powerful, and they are cheaper to acquire than at any other time in history.  Materials are becoming more accessible, more sophisticated, and more fun to work on and with.” P. 23
“The key thing here is that the costs of resources for a start-up are falling” p. 43
“The largest untapped resource on the planet is the spare time, creativity, and disposable income of the ‘creative class.’” P. 52

This framework for rethinking future jobs should also encourage at very young age, multidisciplinary systems T-shaped thinking which can be very hands on and include field trips to see how things work in cities or self-sufficient home/farms, and other places where people work in smart service systems – see for example T-shapes skills, depth and breadth, which IBM embraces. Depth for problem solving and doing (mental, physical), and breadth for communications (social).  The adaptiveness of T-shaped professionals for future work and innovation is the shift from specialized I-shapes, to add breadth for adaptiveness to the deep I-shapes, which are still needed of course, they just need to be more adaptive and flexible to thrive in the age of accelerations.

Smart Service Systems

Investment in smart, people-centered service systems (NSF):
2016 $13M:  https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=189628
2015 $10M:  https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=136268

Would be great to get funding up to $100M a year from ~$10M  year over the last few years.

Smart service systems = socio-technology systems with artificial intelligence/machine learning to augment people in their social roles, where economics and public policy are also considered… so basically an interdisciplinary approach to real world systems with people, technology, and money flows and rules/laws, in them.  Because these systems learn, some people prefer cyber-social learning systems to smart service systems.

This is the latest NSF workshop – let me know, you are invited if you have an interest – March 29-30, Santa Clara, CA: http://www.servicescienceprojects.org/ISSIPNSF/

Theme: industry-university collaboration for smart service systems (this includes AI for digital cognitive systems for all occupations)

 

 

Predicting discoveries or automated hypotheses from the literature

Spangler S, Wilkins AD, Bachman BJ, Nagarajan M, Dayaram T, Haas P, Regenbogen S, Pickering CR, Comer A, Myers JN, Stanoi I (2014) Automated hypothesis generation based on mining scientific literature. InProceedings of the 20th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining 2014 Aug 24 (pp. 1877-1886). ACM.  URL: http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/alacoste/files/p1877-spangler.pdf

This early study tackles a basic problem that is challenging progress in every field of human intellectual activity: we have become much better at generation of information than at its integrative analysis. This leads to deep inefficiencies in translating research into progress for humanity. No scientist can keep up with the unrelenting flow of new studies and results, even within specialized fields.

The method is trained by chronologically ordering the literature, and using the past to try to predict the future.

Eight unsolved grand challenges of AI/CogSci

The eight unsolved grand challenges of AI/CogSci are readily apparent if one watches a child growing up to adulthood, and noticing capabilities that arrive at different ages.

The list below provides a set of goals for students building open source AI software for smartphones.  Moreover, to stimulate university startups, students should be learning to build, understand, and work with an open source cognitive assistant on their smartphones that helps them learn, plan their career opportunities, develop cognitive assistants for all occupations they plan to enter.

The above student projects will become much easier, once these eight unsolved grand challenges of artificial intelligence and cognitive science have been solved:

People these capabilities developing from 0-5 years of age:
(1) minute experience (Fiore)
(2) episodic memory (Schank, Socher)

Oddly enough, (2+) deep learning for perception and action is getting pretty well solved (some super-human capabilities) – and this is why so many people think AI is solved, or nearly about to be solved, because they think this one think near the bottom-middle of the cognitive capability hierarchy allows everything to be solved quickly – and it does not.  There are things lower and higher in the stack of cognitive capabilities that remain very challenging – grand challenges, in fact.

People these capabilities developing from 5-10 years of age
(3) commonsense reasoning (Lenat)
(4) social interactions (Forbus)

People these capabilities developing from 10-15 years of age
(5) fluent conversations (Klein)
(6) ingest textbooks (Etzioni)

People these capabilities developing from 15-20 years of age
(7) ingest regulations (Searle)
(8) collaboration augmentation (Engelbart)

People require about 10 millions minutes of experience to acquire these capabilities and become an adult in society.

Then adult people require about 2 million minutes of experience to go from novice to expert in an occupation or social role where experts already exist to learn from.

In slightly more detail:

(1) minute experience (Fiore) – requires representing both external inputs and internal inputs – no one really knows how one minute of experience works in a person.
(2) episodic memory (Schank) – requires building a dynamic memory that experience can be added to, and performance on certain tasks improves and does not degrade with additional experiences.

See minute 50 for dynamic memory by Socher Salesforce: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGk1v1jQITw
(3) commonsense reasoning (Lenat) – requires reasoning changes to be compiled for rapid memory lookup.
(4) social interactions (Forbus) – requires animal level and then beyond animal level awareness and modeling of others.
(5) fluent conversations (Klein) – very hard, how do people do it?
(6) ingest textbooks (Etzioni) – very hard, especially when diagrams are included, etc.
(7) ingest regulations (Searle) – very hard, to go beyond social rules and manners, to become good at understanding the laws and institutions that shape behavior.
(8) collaboration augmentation (Engelbart) – very hard, requires people first that people know how to collaborate, and then people with cognitive assistants to interact fluidly on tasks as well.

Rob Farrell (IBM Research) and Paul Maglio (IBM Research, UCMerced) look at the list of capabilities above, and were not satisfied with my list – since they wanted clear tasks that a machine would have to perform, not a loose description of a vague capability like commonsense reasoning.

Rob wrote:

Is the idea to break these down according to cognitive functions?  [JIM: Actually developmental capabilities sequence, mental simulation of a child growing up]

I feel like AI challenges should be an obvious, verifiable, optimal, or indistinguishable from humans. [JIM: Yes, AI systems need to accomplish clear tasks to be evaluated.]

One way to do this is to have the challenges not jut focus on the early (“ingest”) or later (“common sense reasoning”) parts of the process, but go end-to-end and drive research in the various cognitive functions but include the target function. Another reason for this is that cognitive functions tend to be more intertwined than we think (Lakoff etc.). [JIM, yes – they are highly intertwined]

So the challenges could be things roughly in the categories you proposed but elaborated in this way. Here is a quick crack at it: [JIM: Thanks so much Rob – great first crack at it]

1) experience representation – generating a natural language description of a complex physical object (e.g. car) from a video of it performing a range of functions (e.g., avoidance)
2) episodic memory – writing a diary every day for a year based on online chat interactions , social network messaging, etc. with a simulated “life” and then answering questions about these “personal” experiences. Also measure degree of connection to others before and after.
3) common sense reasoning – carrying on a dialogue (speech) about the nuances complex concepts such as what counts as conservative or liberal politics or whether an outdoor scene is ‘beautiful’
4) social interactions – robotically navigating a complex physical space (e.g., a Disney park) by interacting with people (e.g., “excuse me”) and objects (e.g, pushing a turnstile).
5) natural conversation – learning another language from audio and text examples enough to respond to questions from native speakers about a complex activity (e.g., what is sold by this store?) with enough accent, grammar, word choice etc. to be understood by the askers
6)  reading (textbook) – Learn math from textbooks and apply to a novel domain by reading different textbooks about that domain (e.g. physics)
7)  reading (lawbook) – make judgements on legality similar to human judges on complex decisions
8) collaboration augmentation – participate in a collaborative activity with two other people to speed up the activity and improve its quality

Additional comments:
1) proposal is too hard, much like an expert system – I am looking for data traces through time that include external environment data as well as hidden internal data – see/hearing and thinking data trace.  Much more difficult, and fundamental what I am asking for.   Robot learning at CITRIS People and Robots, Ken Goldberg, and the work of Pieter Abbeel is getting close.

2) I like this one – auto-diary idea – converting trace of a person behavior into something detailed

3) proposal is too hard, like a debater – I am looking for something that is quickly able to be surprised by commonsense reasoning violations

Commonsense approaches: http://www.kdnuggets.com/2016/08/common-sense-artificial-intelligence-2026.html

Startups looking at deep learning and commonsense reasoning: http://www.technomontreal.com/en/news-center/news/microsoft-acquires-deep-learning-startup-maluuba-yoshua-bengio-to-have-advisory

A long history with Lenat and Cyc: https://www.wired.com/2016/03/doug-lenat-artificial-intelligence-common-sense-engine/

4) sort of OK, like a robot dog at a theme part

5) kind of like this learning-another-language idea – vocabulary, context, matter – but looking for something better than keyword search of the web, but with commonsense reasoning and social interaction playing a role.

6) Allen Institute has a project to ingest a textbook and answer the questions at different grade levels -this one is OK.

7) This is more of 6) but for law books with reasoning about institutions and laws – but ingesting and answering law book questions is the right direction.   RegTech (Regulation Technologies) on the rise.

8) Right – being able to think about a collaborative project, if different people with different skills are vailable – managers have to do this a lot.

 

To read about task versus ability evaluation of AI systems read this:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1408.6908.pdf

To read about Psychometric AI testing read this:
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1509/1509.03390.pdf

To see a nice CHC diagram, check this:
https://assessingpsyche.wordpress.com/2013/12/29/cattell-horn-carroll-chc-theory-of-cognitive-abilities-in-3d/

Jobs of the Future

Alan Kay one of my mentors at Apple during the 1990’s was well-known for saying the best way to predict the future is to invent it…..

President James Mellinchamp (Piedmont College, Georgia) just sent me this nice list of 55 jobs of the future, by Futurist Thomas Frey: http://www.futuristspeaker.com/business-trends/55-jobs-of-the-future/.

What I especially like about the list is it has different sections – Jobs Before 2020 (1-26), The Dismantlers (27-32), and Jobs After 2030 and Beyond (33-55).

Jobs Before 2020: Augmented Reality Architects, Alternative Currency Bankers, Seed Capitalists, Global System Architects, Locationists, Waste Data Manager, Urban Agriculturalists, Business Colony Managers, Competition Producers, Avatar Designers, Avatar Relationship Managers, 3D Printing Engineers, 3D Food-Printer Engineers, Book-to-App Converters, Social Education Specialists, Privacy Managers, Wind Turbine Repair Techs, Data Hostage Specialists, Smart Dust Programmers, Personality Services, Smart Contact Developers, Nano-Medics, New Science Philosopher-Ethicists, Organ Agents, Octogenarian Service Providers, Elevated Tube Transport Engineers

The Dismantlers: Prison System Dismantlers, Hospital and Healthcare Dismantlers, Income Tax System Dismantlers, Government Agency Dismantlers, Education System Dismantlers, College and University Dismantlers

Jobs in 2030 and Beyond: Drone Dispatchers,  Brain Quants, Tree-Jackers, Plant Psychologists, Extinction Revivalists, Robotic Earthworm Drivers, Gravity Pullers, Time Hackers, Clone Ranchers, Body Part & Limb Makers, Memory Augmentation Therapists, Time Brokers – Time Bank Traders,  Space-Based Power System Designers, Geoengineers – Weather Control Specialists, Plant Educators, Nano-Weapons Specialists, Lip Designers, Mass Energy Storage Developers, Earthquake Forecasters , “Heavy Air” Engineers,  Robot Polishers, Amnesia Surgeons,  Executioners for Virus-Builders

Some of my favorites bolded above – and I would like to add “Better Innovation Namers” to the list of Jobs Before 2020.   Much needed job for sure.

My own predictions are show on slide #11 here in this presentation:  http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/understanding-20161128-v8

The summary of my predictions is that by 2025 a big job will begin to be helping people to use their cognitive assistants to be better professionals, such as doctors and lawyers – healthier-people helpers, and more-just-society helpers.  By 2035 a big job will begin to be helping people to use their cognitive mediators to launch multiple startup companies.   By 2055 a big job will begin to be helping people to use their cognitive mediators to manage better their every growing digital workforce of about 100 digital workers per 1 biological person.  Of course, the best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation to build it better.  This “build it better” will shift and become rapidly rebuilding from scratch for a number of reasons.  To get a hint of why this is so, check out this Circular Economy: From Consumer to User video that speaks to products becoming service offerings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cd_isKtGaf8

Here is one last perspective on jobs of the future from Andrew McAfee (MIT) in a nice podcast interview from the economist – speech recognition from a free iPhone app translated some key sections for me below…

Babbage: The automation game
How quickly will robots disrupt global industries and what will the implications be?
We explore with economist Andrew McAfee at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

https://www.acast.com/theeconomistbabbage/babbage-the-automation-game

[7:00] Automation vs Transformation: A clear distinction?

No, it is really not a clear distinction, because technology always does two things simultaneously: it substitutes for people, and the tasks that they do, and at the same time it’s a compliment, it’s an aid for people on the tasks that they do; sometimes even within the same job.  My exhibit A for that is bank tellers and if you remember back as soon as ATM machines came out we hear again that litany of prediction that bank tellers were about to become an endangered species, and if you look at what actually happened the number of bank tellers, in America at least, rose fairly steadily for decades because banks opened up more branches and we actually needed those tellers to do a different set of things but we still really needed those people.  We hit peak bank teller in America about a decade ago and as far as we can tell the total number of bank tellers in America has dropped by about 20% since that peak and that’s not because of one particular tech breakthrough, it’s because of a combination of ATM machines, PC banking, smartphone based banking, electronic payment systems, the technology progress is cumulative and eventually it can turn net complementing jobs into net substituting of jobs.

[9:00] Offshoring vs Automation:

America remains a manufacturing powerhouse, if you look at output.  We are second to China now, but we turn our more manufactured goods than Germany, Italy, France and India combined, and output goes up almost every non-recession year.   Now the year of peak American employment in manufacturing was 1979, and we are down a significant amount of total jobs since then.  That is not a globalization story, that is a technology story and an automation story. Tom you bring up the excellent point that we don’t see this recent amazing technology surge in the productivity statistics yet. I think that’s to be expected, if people are leaving relatively high productivity manufacturing jobs and moving into relatively low productivity service sector jobs. You would expect to see productivity as we measure it go down then.

Now what I anticipate happening is that we’re going to see a boost in service sector productivity thanks to things like excellent speech and voice recognition systems.  The ability of the new technologies to scan huge amounts of pretty unstructured information and generate a pretty clean insightful report out of that.  I think we also need to include in this discussion the overall greater material prosperity and abundance, because of tech progress, is good news.  Now job loss and wage stagnation are real concerns, and I think we see with things like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump what can happen when people feel left behind by the progress that’s going on. So I don’t mean to minimize those concerns at all, but we need to keep in mind we’re creating an overall more prosperous world.  The pressing question for us is how we share that prosperity.

[11:00] What we have to look forward to

Think about a near future where the elderly, and the disabled, and the blind can get around much more easily than they can now.  Think about a future where absolute best in the world medical diagnosis is available, not just to people who live near the great research hospitals in the world, but via pieces of technology and screens and cameras and labs on the chip and smart phones all around the world. Now that is not a science-fiction vision of the future.  Each of those things we see very clearly right now. For me the question is how do we get there while having most people feel like they’re part of that and that they are contributing to it and they have some sense of dignity and meaning and community, while these bizarre technologies are, not happening to them, but happening around them and happening in their lives and their families.  That’s the vision I would like to articulate.

Annual re-read list – my top ten books

From bottom (longest time on list) to top (shortest time on list)… I try to re-read once a year if I can… http://service-science.info/archives/4333

(10) Fagin R, Halpern JY, Moses Y, Vardi M (2004) Reasoning about knowledge. MIT press.
https://www.amazon.com/Reasoning-About-Knowledge-Ronald-1995-08-14/dp/B01JXSKYMS/

One of the most cited books in artificial intelligence – a must read.  Reasoning about the value of knowledge has yet to be written.

(9) Goodsell DS (2009) The machinery of life. Springer Science & Business Media.
https://www.amazon.com/Machinery-Life-text-Second-Goodsell/dp/B004MHIDVK/

Speed of molecules is a key insight the above: http://book.bionumbers.org/how-fast-do-molecular-motors-move-on-cytoskeletal-filaments/

(8) Moss D (2007) A concise guide to macroeconomics. Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Massachusetts.
https://www.amazon.com/Concise-Guide-Macroeconomics-Managers-Executives/dp/1422101797/

If you only have 30 minutes – this is a fine substitute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

(7) De Chardin T. Pierre (1959) The phenomenon of man. Trans. Bernard Wall. New York: Harper & Row.
https://www.amazon.com/Phenomenon-Man-Pierre-Teilhard-Chardin/dp/0061632651

A complex person I wish I had known: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Teilhard_de_Chardin

(6)  Searle JR (1995) The construction of social reality. Simon and Schuster.
https://www.amazon.com/Construction-Social-Reality-John-Searle-ebook/dp/B003LY488C/

Culture is amazing emergent phenomenon – and how we come to agree on certain institutional facts is fascinating.

Big impact on culture and institutional facts coming; see Doug Lenat (Dr. Commonsense Reasoning) wrote about “weak immortality” in this issue of AI Magazine article – search for “weak immortality”
https://www.cs.sfu.ca/CourseCentral/310/jim/aimag2016spring-dl.pdf

(5) Peavy RV (1997) SocioDynamic Counselling: A Constructivist Perspective.  “The person is not the problem, the problem is the problem.” Trafford.
https://www.amazon.com/SocioDynamic-Counselling-constructivist-Vance-Peavy/dp/1552120945/

What is subjective experience and how can the re-telling and re-making of the stories of our lives help us adapt to tragedy and suffering?

(4)  Auerswald P (2011) The coming prosperity: How entrepreneurs are transforming the global economy. Oxford University Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Prosperity-Entrepreneurs-Transforming-Economy-ebook/dp/B0076LTEU8/

How can we change the culture of the world to make startups the new olympic sport of choice?

(3) Kline SJ (1995) Conceptual foundations for multidisciplinary thinking. Stanford University Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Conceptual-Foundations-Multidisciplinary-Thinking-Stephen/dp/0804724091/

T-shapes skills and mindset without using that terminology – socio-technical system design loop and human techno-extension factor.

(2)  Mohr BJ, Amelsvoort PV (2016) Co-creating humane and innovative organization:  Evolutions in the practice of socio-technical system design.  Global STS-D Network Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Co-Creating-Humane-Innovative-Organizations-Socio-technical/dp/0692510036

Service science studies socio-technical system evolution of capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.  The cost burden of responsibilities is politics.

(1) Dartnell L (2015) The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm. Penguin.
https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Rebuild-Civilization-Aftermath-Cataclysm/dp/0143127047

How can we change the culture of the world to make rebuilding rapidly from scratch a priority?

(1 above) Displaced from re-read stack (temporarily?):
Hawley AH (1986) Human ecology: A theoretical essay. University of Chicago Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Human-Ecology-Theoretical-Original-Paperback/dp/0226319849/

(2 above) Displaced from re-read stack (temporarily?):
Simon HA (1996) The sciences of the artificial. MIT press.
https://www.amazon.com/Sciences-Artificial-Herbert-Simon/dp/0262691914/

(3 above)  Displaced from re-read stack (temporarily?):
Deacon TW (2011) Incomplete nature: How mind emerged from matter. WW Norton & Company.
https://www.amazon.com/Incomplete-Nature-Mind-Emerged-Matter/dp/0393343901

Learning mechanisms – evolution, brain, culture – are important – if you don’t have time for Deacon, then a fine summary (of another book) to substitute is:
https://rkbookreviews.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/the-master-algorithm-book-summary/

(4 above) Displaced from re-read stack (temporarily?):

Norman DA (1993) Things that make us smart: Defending human attributes in the age of the machine. Basic.
https://www.amazon.com/Things-That-Make-Smart-Attributes/dp/0201626950

However, should re-add this book, since I find I am promoting it more and more, because of discussions about intelligence augmentation as well as living with complexity.  However, I find it Auerswald’s focus on entrepreneurship key, and his new book “Code Economy” combines the entrepreneurship, recombinations, design, and augmentation themes nicely.  Still, Norman also has this more recent book that is relevant to today’s design challenges:
Norman DA (2010) Living with complexity. MIT press.https://www.amazon.com/Living-Complexity-Press-Donald-Norman/dp/0262014866/
And I also like this related book by Samuel Arbesman a lot:
Arbesman S (2016) Overcomplicated: Technology at the Limits of Comprehension. Penguin.

https://www.amazon.com/Overcomplicated-Technology-at-Limits-Comprehension/dp/1591847761/

Still they are not in my 2017 stack of top ten books to re-read, though I re-read them….  so many good books to re-read, and so little time…

Fiction and other genre (spiritual) go elsewhere – but my all time favorite science fiction book, which I truly love, is without a shred of doubt:

Stephenson N (1995) The Diamond Age: Or, A Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer.  Bantam Spectra.
https://www.amazon.com/Diamond-Age-Illustrated-Primer-Spectra/dp/0553380966/

The need for next generation cognitive curriculum

(1) For CEOs to understand cognitive

How does one win?

Tesla Gathers More Autopilot Miles in a Day Than Google Has in Its Whole Program
http://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-gathers-more-autopilot-miles-in-a-day-than-google-has-in-its-whole-program-107841.html

For CEO’s who want to truly understand cognitive, I recommend reading or listening to the following on next cross country flight…

The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World 1st Edition
by Pedro Domingos (Author)
https://www.amazon.com/Master-Algorithm-Ultimate-Learning-Machine/dp/0465065708

For under $20 one can get the audio version, and listen to it as well…   just 6 hours at 2-3x listening speed.

They can also read the book summary in less than one hour:
https://rkbookreviews.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/the-master-algorithm-book-summary/

The gist is people evolved cognitive capabilities because of powerful learning processes applied to lots of experience: evolution, brain, culture.

10 million minutes experience is required to become an adult in our society.  2 million minutes more to become an expert worker – pilot, doctor, etc.

Experience is interaction with the environment and/or other cognitive entities.

How many minutes of experience do you learn from in your business or work environment every day? 600 minutes per day? what could increase this?

What are the powerful learning processes that you are applying to your front-stage customer interactions and back-stage employee/supplier interactions?

“Cognitive” is an adjective to describe the system that learns to improve performance from experience, not simply the technology or computing piece.

(2) For IBM to lead in cognitive

For next generation cognitive curriculum I have proposed….

… a lifelong learning and career planner for smartphones – cost $1M per year for 2 years for basic version and invest for 5 years for deluxe version.

A big selling point for this system is that is it will help people write their annual performance review and update their resume as well!

(3) For advanced learners… the future

… it is important to teach people about the five unsolved problems of digital cognitive systems… probably all five will be solved in 10 years…

(1) episodic memory (Schank books “Dynamic Memory” and “Scripts, Plans, Goals, and Understanding”)
(2) commonsense reasoning (Doug Lenat’s CYC is a foundation, not a solution)
(3) social interactions (Ken Forbus had a nice piece in AI Magazine on “Software Social Organisms”)
(4) fluent conversation (Builds on the items in this list, plus Speech Acts and much more…)
(5) ingest textbooks (Allen Institute has this as a grand challenge, and SRI did some good work too)

(1) – (4) are pretty much accomplished in the first 10 million minutes of experience of a person…

(5) can be done then, but requires 2 million minutes of experience per domain for a person…

when these unsolved problems are solved, then anyone will be able to build, understand, and work with digital cognitive systems in their personal and professional life.

…just like having a service, assistant, collaborator, coach, mediator in the form of a person in your life today… but one that knows you better in some ways than you know yourself….

Here is the DRAFT video that explains all of the above in more details…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1KD_cliGeU&t=488s

To which add this final thought/question, based on this quote from Domingos “Master Algorithm” book:

Domingos wrote: Natural learning itself has gone through three phases: evolution, the brain, and culture. Each is  product of the previous one, and each learns faster. Machine learning is the logical next stage of this progression. Computer programs are the fastest replicators on Earth: copying them takes  only a fraction of a second. But creating them is slow, if it has to be done by humans. Machine learning removes that bottleneck, leaving a final one: the speed at which humans can absorb change.

My question: Since, it takes about 10 million minutes of experience for a person, embedded in our culture, to progress to adulthood, and an additional 2 million minutes of experience more to progress from novice to expert – in areas as diverse as pilots to doctors to dancers and musicians and AI researcher….  biological cognitive systems (BCS) process one minute of experience in one minute, but digital cognitive systems (DCS) will be able to process millions of minutes of experience in a second – so booting DCS up could be quite rapid – once we understand “experience” bootup better. What is “the best representation of one minute of experience” for BCS and DCS development?

Readings that are service systems related…

Reading that are service systems related…

1. Badinelli R (2016) Modeling service systems. Service systems and innovations in business and society collection, Editors: Spohrer J, Demirkan H.  Business Expert Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Service-System-Modeling-Ralph-Badinelli/dp/1631570234/

“At once staggered by the challenges of modeling service systems, I was inspired by the opportunity they offered.  We are at an exciting stage of human history.  In academic, government, industry, and social circles, recent years have broadened and deepened the realization that service has gone beyond a ubiquitous presence in our lives to become the basis of all exchange and the processes of living healthy and rewarding lives.  In the coming decades, innovative people all over the world will advance the science and engineering of service systems to the level of sophistication and utility that the preceding 100 years of development in the fields of industrial engineering and operations research has brought to manufacturing and supply chains.” p. 3

 

2. Casanova HB (2016) Matching services to markets: The role of the human sensorium in shaping service-intensive markets.  Service systems and innovations in business and society collection, Editors: Spohrer J, Demirkan H.  Business Expert Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Matching-Services-Markets-Sensorium-Service-Intensive/dp/1631573071/

“Driven by the inescapable basics of our biology, and acknowledging the growing insights offered by sociobiology, this book builds on the basic insight that critical to understanding any market in question, is a deeper understanding of the underlying basics of exchanges… Exchanges are at the base, structured arenas wherein process flows of information, energy, material, upon regular repetition, engrain stable complexity, of ordered process, and architecture into an otherwise entropic domain.  They locally, and for the lifetime of the living systems modulating them, prevent the local flow of entropy from drainingg it out into an inert ground state.” p. 5

 

3. Chang CM (2014) Achieving service excellence: Maximizing enterprise performance through innovation and technology.  Service systems and innovations in business and society collection, Editors: Spohrer J, Demirkan H.  Business Expert Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Achieving-Service-Excellence-Performance-Innovations/dp/1606495445/

“Service activities transform the state of an entity (e.g., person, businesses, community, and/or region/nation) or an entities possessions.  Historically, service activities depended upon direct interactions between a customer (beneficiary) and provider (expert)… Today, service providers package expertise and resources in complex service systems of people and technology, so that they can simultaneously increase productivity and quality of both direct and indirect interactions with more and more customers.  There are for-profit and nonprofit service systems.” p. 1

 

4. Enz CA, Kimes SE, Siguaw JA, Verma R, Walsh K, Withiam G (2016) Achieving success through innovation: Cases and insights from the hospitality, travel, and tourism industry.  Service systems and innovations in business and society collection, Editors: Spohrer J, Demirkan H.  Business Expert Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Achieving-Success-Through-Innovation-Hospitality/dp/1631570439/

“This book highlights 55 innovative ideas that have been implemented in the hospitality indutry and its related businesses. For our purposes, an innovation can be defined as a new service, product, process or idea.  As distinct from invention, innovation may mean reapplying or adapting existing ideas in a novel way, but it also may involve coming up with a totally new concept.”  p. 1

 

5. Kaisler SH, Armour F, Espinosa JA, Money WH (2016) Obtaining value from big data for service delivery. Service systems and innovations in business and society collection, Editors: Spohrer J, Demirkan H.  Business Expert Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Obtaining-Value-Data-Service-Delivery/dp/1631572229/

“The Internet, the World Wide Web, and the concept of service delivery have revolutionized the way commercial, academic, government, and nongovernmental organizations deals with their supplies and their clients and customers.   Individuals and organizations are overwhelmed with data produced by IT systems that are so pervasive throughout society, government, and business.” p. 1

 

6. McDavid D (2016) All services, all the time: How business services serve your business.  Service systems and innovations in business and society collection, Editors: Spohrer J, Demirkan H.  Business Expert Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Services-Service-Innovations-Business-Collection/dp/1631572768/

“Business is all about shaping the resources of a generally chaotic world so as to bring forth interesting, useful, and valuable results.” p. 4

 

7. Reisman R (2016) FairPay: Adaptively win-win customer relationships.  Service systems and innovations in business and society collection, Editors: Spohrer J, Demirkan H.  Business Expert Press.
https://www.amazon.com/FairPay-Adaptively-Win-Win-Customer-Relationships/dp/1631574779/

“FairPay is a new logic for conducting ongoing business relationships that adaptively seek win-win value propositions in which price reflects value.” p. 3

 

8. Wirtz, J (2017) Winning in Services Markets: Success through People, Technology, and Strategy.  World Scientific Publishing Co .
https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Service-Markets-Technology-Strategy/dp/1944659056/

“This book will show how service businesses can be managed to achieve cutomer satisfaction and profitability.  Below are key contents of the five parts of this book: Part I: Understanding Service Products, Consumers, and Markets; Part II: Applying the 4 P’s of Marketing to Services; Part III: Managing the Customer Interface; Part IV: Developing Customer Relationships;  Part V: Striving for Service Excellence. ” p. xiv – xvi.

 

 

Decision Making Methods Evolving and Generative Pattern Languages

How do we make better decisions – individually and collectively?  Are these methods evolving over time?

I was recently trying to recall a book I had read related to this topic – and my colleague David Ing helped me remember the book I was struggling to recall…

Mitroff II, Linstone HA (1995) The unbounded mind: Breaking the chains of traditional business thinking. Oxford University Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Unbounded-Mind-Breaking-Traditional-Business/dp/0195102886

 

David also suggested a wealth of related readings, and we hope to discuss more the next time we have a meeting together….   A key  focus area for David Ing’s research these days is generative pattern languages…

David also wrote:

I’m onboard with your idea of service science + cognitive science for rapidly rebuilding evolution.

My approach for this would be to focus on generative pattern language — and I’m using “generative” in the sense that is compatible with your idea of “evolution”.  You might look at the October 30 theoretical work at http://coevolving.com/blogs/index.php/archive/pattern-manual-for-service-systems-thinking/ , that supports the methodological work on the Dec. 2 lecture at http://coevolving.com/blogs/index.php/archive/service-systems-thinking-with-generative-pattern-language-metropolia-201612/ .  There’s actually a lot of background work (particularly on architectural thinking) in the 200-page-plus dissertation I’m closing out.  This is all fresh research for me, so discussing in person ..; could be valuable …

I think that the book you’ve asked me to recall is Business Strategies for a Messy World:  Tools for Systemic Problem Solving, 2014, by Vince Barabba and Ian Mitroff, see https://books.google.com/books?id=A3oeAgAAQBAJ .  The Toulmin Argumentation Schema aligns with the wicked problems and Issue-Based Information Systems (IBIS) from Horst Rittel.  The Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing (SAST) is Mitroff’s original extension of West Churchman’s The Design of Inquiring Systems.  …

In the systems thinking literature, I think that SAST is [too often] overlooked.  Ian Mitroff is a wealth of knowledge, and the author of 37 books.  …

If you’re going to be doing some reading, I have an alternative suggestion.  One of the major research contributions in my dissertation will be turning towards Tim Ingold, and his view on ecological anthropology.  He combines the mind and nature work of Gregory Bateson (which I think you like in Terrence Deacon) with ecological psychology of J.J. Gibson ([required for] a proper reading of affordances) with the social learning of Jean Lave (obviously popularized with Etienne Wenger).  Ingold is deep in philosophy, so much that I’ve been wending the distinctions he makes around Heidegger, Delueze, Latour and Jakob von Uexküll (who influenced Bateson … that’s the grandfather biologist at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jakob_von_Uexk%C3%BCll , not the grandson writer).

… Tim Ingold [was] keynote speaker at IFIP WG8.2 in Dublin.  See https://ingbrief.wordpress.com/2016/12/10/20161210-0915-tim-ingold-thoughts-on-movement-growth-and-and-anthropologically-sensitive-isorganization-studies-ifip-wg8-2/ .  I got a greater appreciation for [his work and related work].  Steven Alter was at IFIP WG 8.2, too.  …

The two books from Tim Ingold that I’ve found most important are:

(1) Being Alive: Essays on Movement, Knowledge and Description (2011) at https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1136735437

(2) The Perception of the Environment: Essays on Livelihood, Dwelling and Skill (2000) at https://books.google.com/books?isbn=041522831X

The two additional books that fill in some other ideas are:

(3) Lines: A Brief History (2007) at https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0415424267

(4) Making: Anthropology, Archaeology, Art and Architecture at https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1136763678

[You can also] …watch him on Youtube and Vimeo.  If you search on Youtube and then change the filters to “upload date”, you’ll see an incredible number of recent lectures from a variety of venues.  I’ve just counted 13 uploads in the last 6 months.

With your interest in service systems and cognitive systems, one word that I would like to draw attention to from Tim Ingold is “alongside”.  This is dissolving the tacit-explicit distinctions of knowledge that are central in Nonaka’s knowledge cycle, coming from Polanyi.

[Also see] … Design of Inquiring Systems, complements to the book include:

(2012) http://coevolving.com/blogs/index.php/archive/the-meta-design-of-dialogues-as-inquiring-systems/

(2012) http://isss.org/world/sanjose-2012-retrospective#basics-mitroff

I’ve now given you a lot to absorb.  Let me know if you find this direction interesting and productive.  Either way… we can have an opportunity to discuss.

In response to:

I am trying to re-focus these days on service science + cognitive science for rapidly rebuilding evolution…. less material, energy, time, space to create emergent structures… what is the speed limit of evolution? progress? type-thinking again….   think about a small robot machine that can easily rebuild itself, as well as create a population large enough so that they can collectively rebuild any machine and decision-making system know to our civilization…

HICSS presentation, and the paper it refers to is out there somewhere as well:
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/rebuilding-evolution-20170106-v4

Our older paper:
http://coevolving.com/pubs/2013_SRBSv30_n5_Spohrer_Giuiusa_Demirkan_Ing_ServiceScienceReframingProgressWithUniversities_v1001_preprint.pdf

The practical reason for this is to help students become better entrepreneurs – but the leap is so huge, I need to get some serious thinking time to make the connections more apparent…

Human-centered, smart service system NSF Workshop

Haluk Demirkan compiled this helpful list:

 

http://california-center-for-service-science.org/nsf-workshop/

http://california-center-for-service-science.org/nsf-workshop-final-agenda/

http://california-center-for-service-science.org/nsf-workshop-attendee-info/

http://california-center-for-service-science.org/nsf-workshop-position-papers/

http://california-center-for-service-science.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NSF-Workshop-Proposal-Summary.pdf

https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1353337

http://cogsci.ucmerced.edu/2014/01/01/cis-faculty-wins-nsf-support-for-conference/

http://ccss.ucmerced.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/NSF-Report.final_.pdf